Looking toward 2024, the most prominent sentiment among fashion industry leaders is uncertainty, reflecting the prospect of subdued economic growth, persistent inflation, and weak consumer confidence. Against this backdrop, businesses will be challenged to identify pockets of value and unlock new drivers of performance.
According to McKinsey’s analysis of fashion forecasts, the global industry will post top-line growth of 2 to 4 percent in 2024 (exhibit), with regional and country-level variations. Once again, the luxury segment is expected to generate the biggest share of economic profit. However, even there, companies will be challenged by the tough economic environment. The segment is forecast to grow globally by 3 to 5 percent, compared with 5 to 7 percent in 2023, as consumers rein in spending after a post-pandemic surge. European and Chinese growth is set to slow, while US growth is expected to pick up after a relatively weak 2023, reflecting the slightly more optimistic outlook there.

These are just some of the findings from The State of Fashion 2024, published by the Business of Fashion (BoF) and McKinsey. The eighth report in the annual series discusses the major themes shaping the fashion economy and assesses the industry’s potential responses. Reflecting in-depth research and many conversations with industry leaders, it reveals the key trends that could shape the fashion landscape in the year ahead. Secondly, Climate urgency. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather-related events in 2023 mean the climate crisis is an even more urgent priority than in previous years.
In the third position, there is Vacation mode. Consumers are gearing up for the biggest year of travel since before the pandemic. But a shift in values means expectations are evolving, even as shopping remains a priority. Fourth point, The new face of influence. It’s time for brand marketers to update their influencer playbooks, as a new guard of creative personalities wins fans. Working with opinion leaders in 2024 will require a different type of partnership, an emphasis on video, and a willingness to loosen the reins on creative control.

The fifth trend is Outdoors reinvented. Technical outdoor clothing and “gorpcore” are in demand as consumers embrace healthier lifestyles. In 2024, more outdoor brands are expected to launch lifestyle collections. At the same time, lifestyle brands will likely embed technical elements into collections, blurring the lines between functionality and style.

Follows Generative AI’s creative crossroads. After generative AI’s (gen AI) breakout year in 2023, more use cases are emerging across the industry. Capturing value will require fashion players to look beyond automation and explore gen AI’s potential to enhance the work of human creatives. The seventh place is occupied by Fast fashion’s power play. Fast-fashion competition is set to be fiercer than ever. Challengers, led by Shein and Temu, are bringing new tactics on price, customer experience, and speed. At number eight there is All eyes on brand. Brand marketing is expected to be back in the spotlight as the fashion industry manages a switch away from performance marketing. Brands may benefit from forging emotional connections with consumers as marketers rewrite playbooks to emphasize long-term brand building. In nine positions, Sustainability rules. The era of fashion industry self-regulation is drawing to a close. Across jurisdictions, new rules will have significant effects on both consumers and fashion players. Brands and manufacturers may consider revamping business models to align with the changes ahead.
Finally, Bullwhip snaps back. Shifts in consumer demand have created a “bullwhip effect,” by which order volatility reverberates unpredictably through supply chains. Suppliers will likely face pressure as brands and retailers focus on transparency and strategic partnerships.